Creators' Corner

Special Report: How the Trump Tariffs and a Global Recession Could Shake the Foundations of the Creator Economy

Written by Eric Farber | Apr 7, 2025 6:47:18 PM

The creator economy, powered by content creators, influencers, educators, and online entrepreneurs, is no longer a niche. It’s a $250 billion+ global engine of culture and commerce expected to double over the next few years. The Creator Economy is the economy.

But that engine may be heading into turbulence. This past week we saw wall street respond to the announcement of tariffs, Friday saw a retaliatory tariff from China and another stock market decline. All in all the Stock market declined over 10% in just 2 days. The largest drop since Covid. 

With Trump-era tariffs returning in 2025 and economists warning of a looming global recession, creators, especially in the United States, face a perfect storm. Rising prices on goods, tightening marketing budgets, and shifting audience behavior could directly hit the lifeblood of creator income, ad revenue, brand sponsorships, affiliate marketing, and fan support.

At Creators Legal, we believe the creator economy is resilient, but not invincible. Let’s break down how these macroeconomic shifts are likely to impact creators and what you can do about it.

  1. Tariffs + Inflation = Rising Costs for Creators and Their Audiences

When we talk about tariffs, most creators think it’s something for manufacturers or big box retailers to worry about. But in reality, Trump’s renewed tariffs many of which hit goods imported from China and other low-cost countries strike at the heart of the creator ecosystem.

Why? Because creators are not just making content - they’re selling products. That includes:

  • Merchandise (hoodies, water bottles, stickers, notebooks)
  • Affiliate products (tech gadgets, beauty products, wellness supplements)
  • Creator-led e-commerce (subscription boxes, courses, books, guides)

Most of those goods, especially physical ones, are made or sourced from abroad. New tariffs mean increased costs at every step of the supply chain. And it’s not just your costs that go up, so do the prices for your audience.

In an inflationary environment, when consumers are already stressed by high grocery bills, housing costs, and stagnant wages, a 15 to 20% price increase on a creator's product can tip the scales from “I’ll buy this” to “Not today.”

For example:

  • A creator promoting an affiliate tech gadget might see their conversion rate drop because the product is now $129 instead of $99.
  • A beauty influencer’s branded skincare line may cost more to manufacture, leading to thinner margins or an uncompetitive price point.
  • A YouTuber’s t-shirt brand might get hit with shipping delays, lower quality control, or returns all of which erode trust and revenue.

Audience behavior is already changing. Consumer confidence dipped again in Q1 2025, and discretionary spending—especially on creator-driven products is often the first to go.

📉 Bottom line: Rising tariffs don’t just mean higher costs for you. They mean fewer purchases, lower conversions, and smaller paydays across affiliate links and e-commerce stores.

Now add a global recession to the mix—and things get even trickier.

 

  1. A Recession Means Less Ad Revenue—Even on the Biggest Platforms

Creators who rely heavily on platform payouts, such as YouTube ads, TikTok Creator Fund equivalents, or Reels monetization bonuses, should be preparing for volatility.

In recessions, advertising is one of the first places companies cut spending. When budgets tighten, marketing teams start reducing bids on programmatic ads, pausing campaigns, and delaying launches.

What does that mean for creators?

  • Lower CPMs. You might see your cost-per-thousand-views drop significantly even if your views remain stable or grow.
  • Fewer high-value campaigns. Big-budget seasonal or product-driven campaigns may get pushed back or canceled entirely.
  • Declining average payouts. Even top creators can see monthly earnings dip 10–30% during economic contractions.

In Q4 of 2022, YouTube ad revenue fell year-over-year for the first time ever. That was during a period of mild economic worry. A full recession, coupled with inflationary pricing, could be worse.

And it’s not just YouTube. Meta and TikTok have also struggled to maintain advertiser demand amid economic uncertainty. As of early 2025, digital ad growth is projected to slow to 3–6%, far lower than the double-digit growth that fueled the last decade of creator monetization.

Historical perspective: During the 2008 financial crisis, traditional ad spend plummeted by 13%. Online advertising only dropped 2%, but creators didn’t exist at scale back then. Today’s economy is far more digital and far more competitive.

The lesson? Don’t depend solely on algorithm-driven, ad-supported income. Diversify, and control as much of your monetization funnel as possible.

  1. Brand Sponsorships Will Get More Selective and ROI-Driven

Sponsorships have been a major revenue driver for creators, sometimes even outpacing ad earnings.

But brand deals don’t happen in a vacuum. They’re part of larger marketing budgets and when those shrink, so does the room for experimentation.

During a recession, brands tend to:

  • Cut short-term influencer deals in favor of long-term ambassadors who can prove ROI
  • Shift budget toward performance marketing instead of top-of-funnel awareness campaigns
  • Negotiate harder on rates, often offering free product or affiliate-only compensation

In the past, you might have been paid $5,000 for an Instagram post. In 2025, that might drop to $3,000 or be contingent on performance metrics like swipe-ups or conversions.

That said, influencer marketing isn’t going away. In fact, many brands are doubling down because creators are more cost-effective and authentic than traditional media. It’s cheaper to pay a micro-influencer $1,000 for a campaign than to buy a banner ad that gets ignored.

What will change is who gets the deals:

  • Creators with deep engagement, niche expertise, and proven conversion rates will win
  • Vanity metrics (like follower count) won’t be enough
  • Brand loyalty and transparency will matter more than ever

Pro tip: Your contracts are going to matter more now. Payment terms, deliverables, performance clauses, and cancellation rights need to be clear. Creators Legal has ready-to-go sponsorship agreements that make this easy and professional.

 

  1. Audience Support Will Tighten, But Loyalty Still Matters

Whether it’s Patreon, Substack, YouTube, or digital courses, direct support from your fans has been a lifeline for many creators.

But in a recession, discretionary income shrinks and monthly subscriptions are one of the first things to go.

This doesn’t mean you’ll lose your community. It means:

  • Your superfans might still support you but at lower tiers
  • Casual supporters may pause or cancel
  • New fan acquisition may slow down, as people become more selective about where they spend

We saw this dynamic during the early days of COVID-19. While millions lost jobs, platforms like Patreon actually grew because creators communicated directly with their communities, provided value, and offered flexible pricing.

The same can happen in 2025. People may spend less, but they’ll still spend if you’ve built a relationship based on trust, consistency, and connection.

🧠 Strategy: Focus on community-first content. Reward loyalty. Offer affordable access points, and make sure your fans feel like insiders - not customers.

 

  1. What Should Creators Do Now?

We’re not predicting doom. We’re predicting change. The creator economy is one of the most dynamic, adaptable industries on the planet but it thrives best when creators are empowered to act like businesses.

Here’s how to protect your creative income in 2025:

Diversify Your Revenue:

  • Don’t rely solely on YouTube ads or brand deals. Sell a digital product. Launch a paid newsletter. Try affiliate income that fits your niche.

Tighten Your Contracts:

  • Sponsorships and collabs require clear expectations especially when money is tight. Creators Legal gives you the tools to send and sign pro-level agreements fast.

Review Your Costs:

  • If tariffs are raising your merchandise or product prices, reassess your margins. Can you shift to U.S. suppliers? Adjust your pricing tiers? Go digital?

Show Your Value:

  • Data is your ally. Show brands your click-through rates, your conversion stats, and your engagement not just your follower count.

Prepare to Pivot:

  • If you're in travel content and the industry slows, shift to local experiences. If you’re a product reviewer, focus on budget-friendly or recession-proof items.

 

Final Thoughts: The Creator Economy Isn’t Collapsing - It’s Maturing

We’ve been through this before. The 2008 crisis. The 2020 pandemic. And each time, the creator economy came out stronger, more serious, and more entrepreneurial.

But this time, the stakes are higher. The creator economy is no longer a cottage industry it’s a global marketplace. And with that comes exposure to real-world economic shocks like tariffs, inflation, and recessions.

Your best weapon? Knowledge. Preparation. And legal protection.

At Creators Legal, we’re building the tools for creators to act like the CEOs they are—with solid contracts, business guidance, and the infrastructure to weather whatever the economy throws at us.

 

Protect your work. Grow your brand. And be ready for what’s next.
Get the contracts and tools you need at
www.creatorslegal.com.

Eric Farber is the Founder and CEO of Creators Legal. He was a Sports and Entertainment Attorney for over 25 years representing the interests of clients not only in the courtroom but as a business advisor and company leader.